Foreign Policy

As of May 7, 2013, 603 Guantanamo prisoners have been released or transferred abroad. Of those 603 we have identified 53 who are either confirmed to be or suspected of engaging in militant activities against either the U.S. or non-U.S. targets. We have placed them in the following categories:

Category 1: GTMO detainees confirmed to be engaging in militant activities against U.S. targets.

TOTAL: 17, 2.8%

Category 2: GTMO detainees suspected of engaging in militant activities against U.S. targets

The CIA drone program began quietly under President George W. Bush with one strike in Yemen in 2002, and then a smattering of strikes in Pakistan between 2004 and 2007 before a more sustained campaign in 2008. During his two terms in office, Bush authorized a total of 48 strikes in Pakistan.

This past Saturday, March 16, 2013 marked an extraordinary moment in Pakistan’s history, as this is the first time that a civilian government has served its entire five-year term (from 2008 to 2013). And, for the first time in its history, the Pakistani military appears both unwilling and unable to mount a coup against any civilian government. The military has mounted four coups since Pakistan’s independence in 1947.

This paper concludes that the most likely medium-run end state to the conflict in Syria is de facto partition of the country into a region controlled by the current regime and another region divided among various rebel factions. Of the potential end states analyzed here, de facto partition is not only the most likely, it is also the worst for U.S. interests. The analysis is based on a series of decision matrices that are standard in the Multi-Attribute Decision Making approach, a method of systematically comparing objectives across a range of national interests.

Reniqua Allen and Hannah Emple explain how and why America's racial wealth gap became a gulf. Tara Maller reveals what makes sanctions a success - or failure - and what she expects from the ones targeting North Korea and Iran. Elizabeth Weingarten hosts.

Rosa Brooks scrutinizes the leaked Justice Department memo that aims to provide legal rationale for the administration's drone program. Brigid Schulte introduces us to surprising research on how to be happier, healthier and more productive. Elizabeth Weingarten hosts.

One of the more significant recent economic developments in South Asia was the revival of trade talks between India and Pakistan in 2011. A question frequently raised is why India and Pakistan trade so little with each other despite the existence of common history, language, culture, and long borders. Economic theory and evidence from around the world would predict that trade between the two largest economies in South Asia would be far greater than its current level of around $2.5 billion.

The trade normalization process between India and Pakistan will undoubtedly open new trade opportunities. This study assesses trade possibilities between the two countries, examines the physical and regulatory impediments to realizing the trade potential, and suggests how the trade potential can be realized. The main findings and recommendations are summarized below.

CAMPAIGN season in the United States is in full swing, with the presidential election scheduled to take place within one month’s time.

Early voting in some states has already started. Washington’s policy wonks are planning their election night parties, while campaign workers gear up for the home stretch, making last-minute phone calls to voters asking for donations and reminding them to vote.

For foreign policy enthusiasts, this election has been less than thrilling. With the exception of Iran and Israel, foreign policy is not a priority in this election.

We have seen this story of bloodthirsty extremist violence before. In Somalia, in Yemen, in Iraq, and now in Algeria. A militant group moves into an ungoverned space where government lacks will or capability, where the group purports to represent the will of the people by instituting some strict version of Islam and imposing this vision with abhorrent ruthlessness. More broadly, in more than a decade of this global counterterror campaign, we have seen this battlefield shift from Afghanistan to Pakistan, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Europe, and now Africa’s Sahel.