Africa

One curious thing about events that catch most of the world by surprise: With a bit of clever reflection -- call it 20-30 hindsight -- it's incredibly easy for ideologues of all stripes around the globe to see what they want (or what they say they've predicted). And after the Egyptian revolution, there has been no shortage of people claiming, "See? I was right all along!" Some of these views reflect cultural or political biases, but some are just downright ridiculous.

If you live in Washington, DC, the question of what does the Egyptian Revolution mean for Palestine might seem like a strange question. The question du jour here is what does the Egyptian Revolution mean for Israel? The subtext to that second question is what does the Egyptian Revolution mean for Israel's continued occupation and its denial of equality to non-Jewish citizens and residents. Of course, both questions show an Israel/Palestine-centric view of the world.

For many, Egypt's 18-day revolution seemed to come out of the blue. It was the kind of event that "cannot always be known or predicted," said James Clapper, the U.S. Director of National Intelligence. Even Egyptians could hardly believe their eyes. "I am speechless," one pro-democracy activist told al-Jazeera. "It's like a dream," a giddy Egyptian woman in Tahrir Square said on CBS News. "We cannot imagine it at all. Everyone is so happy — and shocked at the same time!"

So Hosni Mubarak's not stepping down after all.

What's next? A coup? A widening revolution? A massive crackdown? Who knows? Egypt has plunged into uncharted waters for the past two weeks, and they just got several fathoms deeper.

At an oil field in southern Sudan's oil-rich Unity state, a tar-colored sludge flowed out of the back of a truck into a man-made pool.

A mile down the road, the flags of China, Malaysia, India and Sudan - the nationalities of the companies operating the field - fluttered in the breeze.

The state Environment Ministry fears that when it rains, the pool overflows and contaminates groundwater. "But we are only a new ministry, so it is hard for us to be sure," said James Gatluak, the ministry's director general, adding that he has no budget and a staff of two.

When asked what he thought of the French Revolution, China's first premier Chou En-lai famously replied: "It's too soon to tell." What role did the Internet play in the Egyptian Revolution? People will be arguing about the answer to that question for decades if not centuries.

Wael Ghonim, the Google executive whose anonymous online activism helped bring people into the streets for those fateful protests on January 25, told CNN's Wolf Blitzer that "the revolution started on Facebook," and "if you want to liberate a society just give them the Internet."

After almost thirty years, President Hosni Mubarak is gone.

For the people of Egypt and especially those with the courage to have taken to the streets it is no doubt a day that is impossible to put into words. For the rest of us, a day of awe, celebration and inspiration.

Some, however, have probably not summoned up too broad a smile today – the other non-democratic regimes of the Middle East for instance. Interestingly, Israel too belongs on that list of the "not-exactly-thrilled".

While press coverage of the Middle East and North Africa has spent the past month focused on Tunisia and Egypt, Algerian opposition groups calling for mass protests on February 12 have stirred speculation that their country, now set to be the largest in Africa (given South Sudan's recent vote for secession), may be the next domino to fall.

Despite the fluidity and uncertainty surrounding the political situation in Egypt, one thing seems clear: Egypt and indeed the Middle East will not be the same after January 2011. This will apply even if those in Israel and elsewhere who are pushing for continued military, as opposed to civilian control, and for "democracy with exceptions" -- i.e., Islamists not allowed -- manage to carry the day. (One hopes they will not .) Those governing Egypt will henceforth have to be more responsive to the public will.

Across the Middle East, and most dramatically in Egypt, Arab publics are embracing the most fundamental of American values freedom and democracy. Yet America is being viewed with suspicion not so much as an inspiration for, or ally of, freedoms march.

It does not have to be this way, but first America will have to abandon its defensive crouch and clearly embrace this change as an historic opportunity.